Music · resolved market
Will "Saturn" by SZA win Best R&B Song?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58ce8bdbc11a84a3cd470bc4afea36e24a1c6e244ec92d16ec781ea3aa7bb1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cb4…3b72backed Yes | 64c | 781.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…f63dbacked No | 36c | 781.95$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a1…bb70backed Yes | 70c | 460.7$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 62c | 403$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…b823backed No | 36c | 351$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…8210backed Yes | 64c | 351$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 63c | 292.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 72c | 245.4$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 63c | 232$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 230$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 69c | 220.33$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 164.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fb…3c0ebacked Yes | 70c | 150.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +104%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…57fabacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 75c | 88.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 68c | 67.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855a…6f7bbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…aff8backed Yes | 73c | 34.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…d9d6backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacb…29d8backed Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Saturn" by SZA win Best R&B Song?this page
- Will "After Hours" by Kehlani win Best R&B Song?No won
- Will "Burning" by Tems win Best R&B Song?No won
- Will "Here We Go (Uh Oh)" by Coco Jones win Best R&B Song?No won
- Will "Ruined Me" by Muni Long win Best R&B Song?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.