Olympics · resolved market
Olympic Basketball: USA (-14.5) vs. Serbia Spread
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf7c7990a31ee25e58ae840130d8ad1998226656d5c1c32a149d61688925d5d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Serbiaof USA, Serbia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c58…01aebacked USA | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…fcf5backed Serbia | 80c | 1,290$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Serbia | 48c | 920.39$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0786backed USA | 63c | 396.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Serbia | 79c | 340$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Serbia | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed USA | 46c | 192.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked USA | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Serbia | 17c | 96.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa071…d1d6backed USA | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…82ccbacked USA | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1164…bcd3backed USA | 46c | 41.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed USA | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…ae50backed USA | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.