Movies · resolved market
Will "A Lien" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x752806dfd6682d671309f5acd93edc85e552b53575a3554965192aed8fd71e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79de…324dbacked Yes | 15c | 77,488$11,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,623.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 48c | 1,541$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 51c | 999.98$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 52c | 873.92$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.04 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 41c | 804.99$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.95 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Yes | 48c | 728.74$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 21c | 706.78$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 20c | 693.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 29c | 560$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 441.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…679cbacked Yes | 8c | 424$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 42c | 423.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…2b1abacked Yes | 12c | 331$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 18c | 320.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 60c | 316.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 44c | 310$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.19 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 73c | 268.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 45c | 267$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 37c | 264.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 77c | 262.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 42c | 223$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 46c | 215.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 39c | 213.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…17c2backed Yes | 49c | 203.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…d5e3backed Yes | 10c | 159$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 53c | 151.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb42…dcaabacked Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…4d07backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…0ab3backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…12f3backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd0…6a8bbacked Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…2defbacked No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f5…06f7backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd328…72fcbacked No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…3ee9backed Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…d20abacked No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 50c | 100.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…77acbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…a845backed Yes | 38c | 98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…0186backed No | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…c1f0backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…73a0backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…92b1backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…18f0backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…2260backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…aa08backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 44c | 79.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 49c | 78.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 73.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…ac1cbacked No | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…85bebacked Yes | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 48c | 69.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…c86dbacked Yes | 46c | 64.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…6122backed Yes | 56c | 59.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 53c | 47.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5b…449fbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 54c | 39.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 35c | 37.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4c…8fe6backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…5cf4backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Yes | 50c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…0424backed No | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Lien" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Anuja" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I'm Not a Robot" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "The Last Ranger" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.