TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will "Anuja" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee4c…ea13backed Yes11c1,010$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db4…d1d3backed Yes15c646.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No74c601$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3223751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1309238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes27c441.82$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.957038.6%27 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bba…08a5backed Yes34c388.02$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Yes15c337.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.581921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes14c321.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.068334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes15c268.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.532010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7a…ecdebacked Yes20c255$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c2…972dbacked Yes29c250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c235$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes17c210.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.618330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb253…889dbacked No71c181$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0df…9891backed Yes29c176$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes23c165.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.217416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd959…e262backed No71c141$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No73c133.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.069231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb6…53d6backed Yes29c121$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804b…6ae2backed No72c112$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes27c111$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9719031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47a5…c5c3backed Yes28c106$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6440…c752backed No71c104$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.268231.7%26 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa561…13a2backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid+16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c99.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes31c90$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No76c89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.132142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1118…1156backed Yes28c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62bf…f9f2backed No72c79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No78c78$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.276937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d49…2b12backed Yes28c78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7a…e582backed No72c74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No68c67.12$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.23571.4%25 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No78c67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.744540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e38…eadfbacked Yes18c59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256d…8824backed Yes28c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes21c51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.629926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc1b…6319backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5a…bc30backed No71c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2323…3e4ebacked No71c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0c…8aa7backed No71c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c9…62fabacked Yes28c37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa8…715ebacked No72c37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1afa…93b9backed No72c33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c5…4a77backed No72c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.19441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…f4c3backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7c…fcb9backed Yes77c27.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930f…d794backed No72c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No74c18.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.73372.7%24 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd29…dfe3backed No72c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e1…ff48backed No72c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d52…ee0ebacked No72c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.