TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88b0…b118backed Yes42c1,143$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.549231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No58c512.63$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1110244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14512539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes35c441.82$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.147038.6%27 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.838334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes34c317$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.996937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0763…4f0dbacked Yes33c300.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d7a…ecdebacked Yes36c281.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes42c272.41$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7450633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Yes31c271.7$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.231921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes28c241$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.483953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes20c225.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.264734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f20…8c7abacked Yes47c222$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x753e…7c75backed Yes47c215$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71fc…7350backed Yes48c215$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e4…8a6abacked Yes47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes45c199.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x609e…b5b4backed No53c199$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b6…d0afbacked No53c197$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0220…a994backed No53c191$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a49…566abacked Yes48c188$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc211…689bbacked No52c176$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cd…ee14backed Yes34c164$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf88c…5c4ebacked No53c162.73$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c26…fd6dbacked No52c153$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d3…64b0backed Yes42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b72…51f0backed Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e71…6b1dbacked No65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…5aedbacked No58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed Yes34c146.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed9…5c75backed No52c145$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes43c145$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5323751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7605…2f90backed Yes49c143.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb33…c3d6backed Yes36c140.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3335…f6debacked No51c134.11$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes25c134.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.091799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No62c127.23$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.817448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…4631backed Yes47c126$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc3…bfa3backed Yes48c125.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No57c124$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.853372.7%24 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d9…3fd0backed No52c124$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcce2…fd1dbacked No58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac82…396abacked Yes42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa70d…ff36backed No58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55a3…e0c9backed Yes42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…21cebacked No55c119.38$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No50c113$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.55532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x230c…e028backed No53c111$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Yes49c108.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b62…53bcbacked No55c101$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f36…3f26backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x284e…71a0backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2767232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…4b9bbacked Yes42c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No65c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.55440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc74…6456backed No58c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No66c84.76$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.932751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x486a…5af9backed No66c82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd855…e08dbacked No66c82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8811…5cf4backed Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a66…2e06backed Yes48c74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb2…fc04backed No52c74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf6…a136backed No54c73.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…0becbacked No58c73$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7dd…e903backed Yes42c73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076a…0b21backed No55c72.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e67…67d9backed Yes49c71.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae1…e19dbacked Yes48c68.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x450c…8456backed No58c66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac62…830bbacked Yes42c66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9120…400dbacked No58c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb180…aae5backed Yes42c65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b16…2ec8backed Yes48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes47c61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.427126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ad…9c37backed No54c55.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34c1…daf7backed No52c53.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e51…aa0dbacked Yes49c52.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa837…a2d6backed Yes47c51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.510232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942560%15 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes32c48.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.447416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x602c…bc63backed Yes33c48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0f…b11abacked No53c47.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c1…afdebacked Yes47c47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a3…2b37backed Yes33c47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf470…0947backed Yes32c47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Yes34c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1553…fd91backed Yes33c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a7d…07a7backed Yes47c42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b65…8466backed No67c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No67c37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.212352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec9…5b12backed No53c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.