Movies · resolved market
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a1e0bad436abf7274ac256733b539975546e11d0121f2d84922a586d6e691cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 26c | 5,736$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.34 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 20c | 2,329$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.16 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 25c | 2,077$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.35 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…950dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,748$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,587$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.47 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 79c | 1,320$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 71c | 1,031$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.05 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 74c | 960.98$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.86 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d5…2a38backed Yes | 24c | 777.52$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 7c | 667.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 25c | 629.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.44 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 5c | 622.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 25c | 590.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 556.8$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.35 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 31c | 500$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 26c | 500$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 20c | 495.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 74c | 447.61$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 18c | 397.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 75c | 390.92$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 79c | 346.6$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 340.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 25c | 320.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…049cbacked No | 78c | 233.01$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 21c | 218$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…1becbacked Yes | 23c | 210.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 79c | 165.21$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 74c | 131.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked Yes | 27c | 127.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 127.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 22c | 126.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 77c | 117.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 80c | 99.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…5cffbacked Yes | 18c | 97.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 92.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec65…5bbabacked Yes | 21c | 91.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 87.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 27c | 87.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 84.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Yes | 21c | 84.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes | 24c | 77.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 78c | 74.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…5715backed Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…8616backed Yes | 22c | 62.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…0cd5backed Yes | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…07c8backed No | 79c | 58.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdf…aabdbacked Yes | 27c | 55.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1454…5e4cbacked Yes | 25c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c2f8backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c7…de1fbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…f4a5backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…a467backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…8d4ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…b909backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…6bd4backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…2f00backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d58…d16bbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57da…39c1backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…d290backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…a67dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…d196backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b97…899bbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.