Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c313753243049a92dbbeed49afe6db1ce196ce07d48ae8d2035d462afd68518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,197$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 15c | 1,979$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.84 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,932$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 6c | 1,907$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,796$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 6c | 1,572$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 6c | 1,571$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 2c | 1,186$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 7c | 972$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 728.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 548.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…08a5backed Yes | 19c | 538.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 12c | 535.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 20c | 506.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 2c | 439$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 397$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 8c | 283$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 9c | 259.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 7c | 246.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 7c | 244$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 18c | 237$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Yes | 6c | 195$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 10c | 191$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 11c | 138.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 15c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.