Music · resolved market
Kendrick drops another track by midnight?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa35467fd6eae6cfdbe8af47baf82d2b8f0f080c77950eeeff27df8c04b6a6156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0428…9b44backed Yes | 38c | 3,424$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…6eecbacked Yes | 3c | 858.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 17c | 800$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 16c | 736.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 19c | 723.68$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 591.52$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 62c | 522.76$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +886.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked No | 80c | 406.25$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 74c | 370$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 79c | 350$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35d…108fbacked Yes | 5c | 286.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 17c | 230.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 213.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…638bbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 62c | 194.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 78c | 166.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 39c | 60.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 71c | 51.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked No | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +423.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…ba8abacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa612…ac04backed No | 63c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.