Us Politics · resolved market
Will anyone audibly fart during tariff event on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf02d036ced08b2c6edcc2893b238b4baf1be94200d464654c3c062d7d6d120a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,053,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,050,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,053,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x596b…3560backed Yes | 0c | 129,136$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 2c | 60,939$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 2c | 60,404$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.5 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 50,931$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.11 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…cd05backed Yes | 1c | 40,111$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…db09backed Yes | 2c | 36,664$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…d9e1backed Yes | 1c | 29,250$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 1c | 23,301$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 1c | 20,905$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes | 1c | 13,447$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 1c | 12,252$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…60a9backed Yes | 3c | 11,137$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 3c | 10,396$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…c784backed Yes | 1c | 10,341$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…a121backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…7058backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 8,757$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.69 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 1c | 8,700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 2c | 5,552$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…d9febacked Yes | 1c | 5,197$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…6ccfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…1063backed Yes | 1c | 4,203$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 5c | 3,495$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 2c | 3,031$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d6…4cb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,889$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,746$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,615$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…92b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,599$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 3c | 2,533$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed Yes | 2c | 2,368$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 5c | 2,179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 1c | 2,025$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…7201backed Yes | 1c | 2,008$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 2c | 1,444$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…626dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,328$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,248$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29b…8423backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 5c | 1,003$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…8393backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b1…5455backed Yes | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd7…468ebacked Yes | 2c | 795.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…dbdebacked Yes | 2c | 719.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 2c | 625$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.