Music · resolved market
Taylor Swift #1 album for 10 or more weeks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356b3a0bfe9c9b402e1e96eba3d9416329fe0b570b1102521e70813b2fdde412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 15c | 9,344$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,985.66 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 9c | 9,265$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.7 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 5,084$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,503.28 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 11c | 2,567$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…1eb4backed Yes | 8c | 1,267$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 44c | 1,050$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 9c | 1,010$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 13c | 919.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 7c | 649$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +290.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…c863backed No | 4c | 541.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…3726backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…f1c6backed No | 55c | 181.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…1afcbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…e312backed Yes | 70c | 27.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed No | 79c | 13.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 10 or more weeks?this page
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 1 week?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 2 weeks?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 3 weeks?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 4 weeks?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 5 weeks?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 6 weeks?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 7 weeks?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 8 weeks?No won
- Taylor Swift #1 album for 9 weeks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.