Movies · resolved market
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027331385076d54c1f92824de01608e6bc51e2d5f820f23868654c64ef3e2f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed No | 74c | 5,885$4,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.25 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,101$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.8 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 27c | 2,891$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.47 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 1,330$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.74 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 862.41$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 28c | 749.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 73c | 425.1$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 28c | 409.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 179.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9b…b5febacked Yes | 27c | 167$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 24c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…00dfbacked Yes | 27c | 88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…7806backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…42ccbacked No | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…dc74backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…8f72backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…ef56backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 57.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a52…31cdbacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…0d50backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…6774backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…988cbacked Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…1cfdbacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…ce60backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d37…0310backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…7b73backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 29.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 71c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a6…6f08backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…3b18backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…7f3bbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…6c5abacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0df…a552backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…1cc9backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7427…924abacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…f0adbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb7…3f23backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…fd0bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"?this page
- Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?Yes won
- Will Coralie Fargeat win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"?No won
- Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Dune: Part Two"?No won
- Will Edward Berger win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"?No won
- Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Emilia Pérez"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.