Fifa International · resolved market
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0568da355dfe65156004f39a7a32f9b9b155845c50f168841ad53fb4610dfaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 8c | 1,701$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 1,689$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 6c | 1,338$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 11c | 852.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 7c | 823.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 10c | 715.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 17c | 701.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 25c | 579$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 78c | 515.99$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 8c | 431.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 347$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…35cabacked No | 28c | 342.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 30c | 270.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 178 | 28.1%50 W · 128 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db4…07c9backed Yes | 75c | 254.84$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 65c | 165$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…6822backed No | 29c | 164.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…cef0backed Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 100.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 15c | 96.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 34c | 81.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 81.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…780ebacked Yes | 69c | 72.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…3b0bbacked Yes | 65c | 61.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…abafbacked Yes | 67c | 58.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 65c | 49.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…7a8bbacked Yes | 72c | 48.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 42.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 67c | 30.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 65c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a0…8ccebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Panama be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Panama be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.