Movies · resolved market
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc00ecda6f3af2c42aa81e3498a5978887ccc34c812b4372405206c430e7eb2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 71c | 1,480$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.7 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 908$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 29c | 307$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 250$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 29c | 250$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 69c | 199.1$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 65c | 141.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 75c | 140.61$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 62c | 130.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Yes | 71c | 127.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 30c | 116.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 29c | 101.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…bf16backed Yes | 38c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…77f0backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…4690backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…42a1backed No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…7e6dbacked No | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0a…5c53backed No | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…dd1dbacked No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…acd2backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…5550backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…aa47backed Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…5689backed Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…6febbacked Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…6814backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?Yes won
- Will "Kneecap" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.