Movies · resolved market
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff9982c777062120e887d2882bb1e1452e8e75df2673cd62e66cf129f3594166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $253,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116f…2737backed Yes | 40c | 120,000$48,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…1743backed No | 60c | 120,000$72,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 41c | 2,945$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.55 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 62c | 883.19$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.43 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 822$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.86 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 800$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 66c | 681.23$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.36 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 60c | 644.33$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 58c | 630$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 45c | 556.33$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 42c | 478.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Yes | 43c | 461.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 59c | 413$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.96 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 42c | 400$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.37 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed No | 61c | 377.05$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +259.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 43c | 336.76$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 41c | 330$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 41c | 321$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.31 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 40c | 252.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 39c | 249.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 48c | 237.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…1d54backed Yes | 41c | 230.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 60c | 198$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 56c | 190.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 43c | 187.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 134.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 57c | 118.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 56c | 102.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 38c | 74.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 44c | 68.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78aa…ed06backed Yes | 42c | 64.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…b96ebacked Yes | 42c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…4cbcbacked No | 64c | 57.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…24d6backed Yes | 44c | 56.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 46c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…86a0backed Yes | 58c | 54.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…9650backed No | 58c | 54.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f11…3a54backed Yes | 44c | 49.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…56e8backed No | 61c | 46.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…697fbacked Yes | 63c | 42.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…c4a4backed No | 44c | 40.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…979dbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…056fbacked No | 61c | 36.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 56c | 30.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…e5b1backed Yes | 43c | 23.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf089…5886backed No | 56c | 22.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…d5b1backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…cce9backed No | 59c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15c…44c6backed No | 58c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…017fbacked No | 61c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?Yes won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.