Movies · resolved market
Will "Anora" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cffa0461d6896b8d4830539e8fc63a25b3cc6b383e9bc871417c72144af2a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,404$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.25 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 26c | 482.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…9189backed No | 73c | 306$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…5960backed Yes | 27c | 306$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 26c | 285.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 26c | 256.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 27c | 247$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…a9bdbacked Yes | 25c | 217$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…df05backed No | 75c | 209$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe65c…136fbacked Yes | 25c | 169$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34a…8544backed Yes | 25c | 142$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 133$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 102.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…24acbacked No | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…9213backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed No | 76c | 71.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 68c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…425fbacked No | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…b0f6backed No | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce8…b98dbacked No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…dcd8backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ded…43b8backed No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…6d03backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…9907backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Anora" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?Yes won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.