Movies · resolved market
Will "Conclave" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b483602f2bc47cd66bf69cb7b9eec5508a3462dca7238af178f8cf9c1e1c147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Yes | 30c | 728$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 69c | 684.14$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.3 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 30c | 596.15$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.66 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 68c | 535$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.8 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 421.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.05 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 32c | 410.36$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000f…04acbacked No | 72c | 409$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 28c | 403$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 30c | 321$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 34c | 250$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 34c | 221.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…322cbacked Yes | 28c | 209$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 30c | 205$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…4ea9backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…0f06backed Yes | 28c | 196$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 33c | 150.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 133.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 30c | 124.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…0d85backed No | 72c | 79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 31c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…da8cbacked No | 72c | 59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…8852backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Conclave" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.