Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b536a19011e8a90ea40685aa8c6a1ae87b352d058cf831204d995213c1e3ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 1,659$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.63 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 12c | 991.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 850$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 27c | 480.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.38 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 3c | 441.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 60c | 365.27$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 49c | 299.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 54c | 279.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 271.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.95 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 183$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 63c | 173.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 51c | 171.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 165$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed No | 35c | 163.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 156.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 281 | 48.4%136 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 12c | 147.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.03 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…7eafbacked No | 17c | 113.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 208 | 50.5%105 W · 103 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 102.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 101.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 53c | 101.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 45c | 101.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…7e75backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 59c | 98.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 73.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 32c | 53.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…ceedbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 65c | 43.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 45c | 40.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 36c | 39.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 53c | 36.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…63edbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 29.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…75edbacked Yes | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 62c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -15.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…69a2backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.