Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb5b3d8143f2aee0cd53d1f8b1b0fdc0794fac5569dc96f298e7ee0d2e60fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,119$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 2,116$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.22 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 8c | 1,065$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 674.03$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.47 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 19c | 473.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.78 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 20c | 439.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.81 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 19c | 386$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.66 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 19c | 363$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.38 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 60c | 348.03$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 17c | 343.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.39 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 23c | 333$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.61 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 15c | 325$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.25 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 24c | 322.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.76 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 41c | 313$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 20c | 307.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.76 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 19c | 301.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 240$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 176 | 32.4%57 W · 119 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 19c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 66c | 197.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 72c | 187.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 150.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 18c | 139.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 136$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 20c | 125.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc486…ecdebacked Yes | 25c | 119.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…b095backed No | 25c | 115.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 27c | 107$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 32c | 106.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…c845backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 20c | 91.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 74c | 83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 55c | 82.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 19c | 73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 72.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 19c | 65.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 23c | 61.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 73c | 52.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 27c | 50.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 53c | 49.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 86 | 74.4%64 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 77c | 31.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 28.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 80c | 18.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.