Movies · resolved market
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6bbed0a78db8f1a905fa05cbe612df69fc908c28620075d08598ae477cbc2de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a86…b39ebacked No | 44c | 1,735$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 56c | 1,610$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.43 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 58c | 1,401$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.43 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 59c | 810.51$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.31 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 58c | 715.54$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.91 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 56c | 664$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.38 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed No | 42c | 638$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.35 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 43c | 535.78$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.33 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 47c | 477.02$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 43c | 462.79$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 44c | 370$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked No | 37c | 348.86$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 62c | 325.81$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed No | 38c | 325.81$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 63c | 323.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 56c | 314.14$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 56c | 314.14$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 42c | 299.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 44c | 254.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.95 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 57c | 250.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 43c | 248.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 60c | 211$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 64c | 204.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 61c | 162.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 154.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…2340backed Yes | 65c | 154.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 60c | 135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 57c | 128$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef8…6d2ebacked No | 39c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…42f3backed No | 39c | 89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…05eabacked No | 41c | 83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…f344backed No | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb110…bdacbacked Yes | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…5d95backed Yes | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0b…e7fdbacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc870…c8aebacked Yes | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…93c3backed Yes | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…ba55backed No | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x313b…dd02backed Yes | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…1f4fbacked Yes | 61c | 48.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…0946backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 45c | 42.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4c78backed No | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b88…7e3cbacked Yes | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6629…bd4ebacked Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…acacbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 55c | 29.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d3…0de3backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…ffe3backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…1500backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…06cdbacked Yes | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…3b00backed Yes | 56c | 18.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…db66backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?this page
- Will Hugh Grant win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Heretic"?No won
- Will Ralph Finnes win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"?No won
- Will Sebastian Stan win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Apprentice"?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "A Complete Unknown"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.