Movies · resolved market
Will Ralph Finnes win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x769898cb3a35fedce72b88e4bad68f91cf814c2ebd90392e3b847cd0735c0348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 31c | 605.64$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 400$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 282.66$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 31c | 282$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 30c | 260$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 25c | 251.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 219.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa749…c9c3backed Yes | 28c | 201$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…9189backed No | 73c | 195$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…1cf6backed Yes | 28c | 189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8f…dfa6backed Yes | 27c | 170$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…e9f4backed No | 72c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 69c | 125$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe1…1a1cbacked No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…5684backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…8ae2backed No | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf813…163cbacked No | 72c | 87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…9ad0backed No | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…aabfbacked No | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…9e93backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…02e0backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…3783backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…832dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cec…42b9backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…3981backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…417dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ralph Finnes win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"?this page
- Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?Yes won
- Will Hugh Grant win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Heretic"?No won
- Will Sebastian Stan win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Apprentice"?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "A Complete Unknown"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.