Movies · resolved market
Will Demi Moore win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Substance"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91ea361f8eba82f49add1e92a2ba5a035d6a2da8b59fab2807bd1042e6614671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9c2…723dbacked No | 45c | 132,000$59,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…1743backed Yes | 55c | 132,000$72,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 41c | 1,794$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.68 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 59c | 1,489$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 61c | 996.05$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 803.1$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.77 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…e59cbacked Yes | 78c | 614$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 28c | 334$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 62c | 262.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 48c | 248.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 35c | 235.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 68c | 216.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 64c | 210$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Yes | 57c | 204.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…5684backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 24c | 173.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 34c | 168.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 62c | 158.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 61c | 150.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…9d9bbacked No | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 70c | 122.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…ae87backed Yes | 65c | 76.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d55…cebdbacked No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…e581backed Yes | 75c | 37.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…b91ebacked No | 51c | 25.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…22eebacked Yes | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…37c7backed Yes | 68c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…ac2cbacked Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…722bbacked Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7416…ae09backed Yes | 71c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…927abacked Yes | 61c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 75c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Substance"?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked"?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Anora"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.