Movies · resolved market
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Anora"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d360db1420668e5d764b4e3b9f4be9af9f9e991e980f11561b566fe34ccfcf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 3,453$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.91 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 68c | 967$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 32c | 710$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.8 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 495.66$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.86 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 376$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.62 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…f4abbacked Yes | 37c | 351.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 32c | 318.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…5684backed No | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 69c | 281.24$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 227$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 33c | 208.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 68c | 203$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 32c | 186$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 21c | 164$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 66c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…8995backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 37c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 40c | 119.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…fe34backed Yes | 36c | 109$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…2867backed Yes | 36c | 107$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d55…cebdbacked Yes | 49c | 102.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 33c | 90.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7a…9db3backed No | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…b8e3backed No | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…e8c1backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…fe26backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 63.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…5e06backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 37c | 38.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Anora"?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked"?No won
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Substance"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.