Fifa International · resolved market
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c43ee968ab0406c3459db7fc808abc6839f842b86aa7885b4156fab71584e10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 10c | 3,635$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.77 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed No | 11c | 3,606$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.64 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 10c | 2,458$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 20c | 740.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.53 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…5d1bbacked No | 10c | 544.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 67c | 542$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.41 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 13c | 458.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 344.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 8c | 320.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 11c | 312.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 10c | 255.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed No | 12c | 251.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 14c | 225$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 18c | 211.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 11c | 208$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 10c | 176.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 58c | 165.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 146$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 145.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 11c | 141$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 136$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 12c | 133.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 123.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 11c | 120.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 45c | 117.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…ba8fbacked No | 37c | 115.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 36c | 113.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 51c | 94.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 77.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 66c | 56.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 55.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 53.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…a441backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 66c | 39.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…1947backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.