Fifa International · resolved market
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45b5d8887cb3e659bb6f588349f25339024150274d1387b7b8e129a830cc808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 20c | 5,062$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.57 | 178 | 28.1%50 W · 128 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 10c | 1,047$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 18c | 693$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 72c | 578.99$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…17b5backed Yes | 15c | 511.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 36c | 493.31$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.29 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…e7febacked Yes | 15c | 403.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…d9b2backed Yes | 12c | 346.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked No | 68c | 344.93$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 39c | 333$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 12c | 315.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 288.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 16c | 279.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 38c | 230$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 11c | 224.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked No | 80c | 191.41$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 164$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 8c | 137.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 17c | 134.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 61c | 115.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96d…8e43backed Yes | 9c | 115.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…e70bbacked Yes | 39c | 111.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 106$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 103.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 102.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed No | 61c | 81.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 77.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…f042backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…330ebacked Yes | 26c | 71.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 53.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 61c | 51.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…d629backed Yes | 39c | 51.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 50.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d7…5b28backed No | 61c | 28.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…ee1ebacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Sweden be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.