Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4709b1adb2f0fd9cb12a98d36cd4baa8d36d0b57b30e80f79dc98ee32a805cad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bd0…0f3fbacked Yes | 26c | 12,459$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…d3a9backed No | 74c | 7,300$5,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Yes | 28c | 7,062$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…a159backed No | 74c | 6,760$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…afd7backed Yes | 26c | 6,160$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…173abacked No | 74c | 5,948$4,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 72c | 3,600$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 71c | 3,477$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.23 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 5c | 999$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Yes | 27c | 986.02$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.69 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 920$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 26c | 742.08$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.97 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 432$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 73c | 399.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 28c | 359.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 242.79$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 69c | 173.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…a584backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…2078backed Yes | 28c | 71.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…0007backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…d97ebacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…5bc3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-23?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.