TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

La Liga · resolved market

Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Barcelonaof FC Barcelona, Real Madrid CF
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c58…a5a1backed FC Barcelona38c11,690$4,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,247.81464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1103…bb2fbacked FC Barcelona37c7,978$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,026.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Real Madrid CF62c5,608$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.0214146.8%66 W · 75 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Barcelona61c5,505$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.3257139.2%224 W · 347 L+1.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Real Madrid CF64c5,224$3,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.3215459.7%92 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Real Madrid CF59c4,995$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.724,74047%2,230 W · 2,510 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed FC Barcelona39c4,341$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,648.071266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+83.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37f4…49afbacked Real Madrid CF63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed FC Barcelona38c3,819$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.242433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Real Madrid CF62c3,569$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.261,17651.9%610 W · 566 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Real Madrid CF63c3,351$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.9635442.7%151 W · 203 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Real Madrid CF31c3,077$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe10c…e7e2backed FC Barcelona37c2,833$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.592065%13 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf747…7d29backed FC Barcelona38c2,575$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.362240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed FC Barcelona36c2,420$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.628251.2%42 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Real Madrid CF39c2,362$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.358229.3%24 W · 58 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Real Madrid CF62c2,027$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.444548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x210c…d6c1backed Real Madrid CF61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Real Madrid CF62c1,962$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.0664457%367 W · 277 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed FC Barcelona39c1,882$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.6320843.3%90 W · 118 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed FC Barcelona38c1,786$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.8522246.8%104 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a6…6ea4backed Real Madrid CF45c1,662$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+61.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Real Madrid CF63c1,600$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked FC Barcelona39c1,538$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed FC Barcelona37c1,300$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81911333.6%38 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x931c…a002backed FC Barcelona39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed FC Barcelona40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.221741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Real Madrid CF42c1,083$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4503339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed FC Barcelona38c1,055$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.4714028.6%40 W · 100 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Real Madrid CF62c1,029$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.0548251.2%247 W · 235 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked FC Barcelona38c1,028$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.084540%18 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed FC Barcelona38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Real Madrid CF61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a64…3c0abacked Real Madrid CF21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Real Madrid CF61c916.24$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.893,44943%1,484 W · 1,965 L+32.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Real Madrid CF19c900$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17211819.5%23 W · 95 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked FC Barcelona38c900$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55513626.5%36 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed FC Barcelona37c899$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.377343.8%32 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked FC Barcelona39c870.72$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.1410938.5%42 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74a3…3b73backed FC Barcelona71c837.93$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2434841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x734e…5ba1backed FC Barcelona39c771.62$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.691338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e3…d1ffbacked FC Barcelona39c769.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed FC Barcelona38c713.45$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.341241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Real Madrid CF62c646.21$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6548153.6%258 W · 223 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3908…20eabacked Real Madrid CF52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick58cpaid+42.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Real Madrid CF64c568$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.525158.8%30 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Real Madrid CF62c505.14$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0968450.6%346 W · 338 L+15.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d1…84a2backed FC Barcelona36c499.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.997644.7%34 W · 42 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed FC Barcelona39c497.4$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.1710843.5%47 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…bbcdbacked Real Madrid CF63c487.97$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Real Madrid CF33c485.28$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed FC Barcelona37c457.08$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.964845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Real Madrid CF60c416$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.61,03848.1%499 W · 539 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked Real Madrid CF27c410$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.74141.5%17 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Real Madrid CF60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407358.9%43 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Real Madrid CF51c390.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Real Madrid CF62c382.61$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.782,34348.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L+1.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75bf…991cbacked FC Barcelona37c381.89$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.594100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+103.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked FC Barcelona37c373.41$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2519130.4%58 W · 133 L-0.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7210…4bb5backed FC Barcelona48c367.43$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d03…c3b6backed Real Madrid CF30c316.13$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Real Madrid CF62c314.56$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4722658.4%132 W · 94 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Real Madrid CF64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-40.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed FC Barcelona49c310$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.142458%246 W · 178 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed FC Barcelona36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc283…b876backed FC Barcelona38c293.58$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.092222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe275…a114backed FC Barcelona40c265$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4497…d5a3backed FC Barcelona37c264.86$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.86944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53f…8c53backed FC Barcelona38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.161154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked FC Barcelona39c262.82$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3219953.3%106 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed FC Barcelona37c259.81$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.083342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed FC Barcelona51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed FC Barcelona39c250$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1523100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+148.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ff…18acbacked FC Barcelona40c248.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+76%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Real Madrid CF61c246.19$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.111,56651.6%808 W · 758 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Real Madrid CF60c238.95$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3789050%445 W · 445 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3f…caf9backed Real Madrid CF63c238.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Real Madrid CF60c237$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.21,08150.6%547 W · 534 L+11.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed Real Madrid CF63c236.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Real Madrid CF63c229.37$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8813347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf067…5c6dbacked FC Barcelona37c213.51$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.51825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed FC Barcelona38c210.53$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.531330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+140.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Real Madrid CF29c210.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2641323.2%96 W · 317 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed FC Barcelona58c210.26$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.957850%39 W · 39 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Real Madrid CF63c210$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.328045.4%127 W · 153 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc487…ab80backed FC Barcelona55c204.68$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6c…2acbbacked Real Madrid CF64c202.39$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Real Madrid CF20c200.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.446940.6%28 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Real Madrid CF50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020252%105 W · 97 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Real Madrid CF53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1064528.9%13 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Real Madrid CF60c196$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.65757.9%33 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…664cbacked Real Madrid CF49c193.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f4…5222backed Real Madrid CF37c190.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Real Madrid CF53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8374…f183backed FC Barcelona39c177.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.553354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed FC Barcelona63c162.16$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.671,41945.6%647 W · 772 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Real Madrid CF62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Real Madrid CF64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004055%22 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-9.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Real Madrid CF63c152.02$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked FC Barcelona38c140$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.417651.7%91 W · 85 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.