Movies · resolved market
Will Adolescence win Best Producer of a TV Limited or Anthology Series at the 37th PGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504dfb9a0dc9d0f0a9ed2a298f1fcefe495f97c2d1332679da8e45a4fd09ddb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,597$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 0c | 4,430$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked No | 1c | 1,872$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 999.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 3c | 866.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 9c | 456$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 29c | 257$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 71c | 257$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 49c | 167.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 42c | 159.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 13c | 151.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01ed…ca5fbacked No | 79c | 125$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 20c | 73.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 46c | 69.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 16c | 68.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…a379backed No | 76c | 56.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adolescence win Best Producer of a TV Limited or Anthology Series at the 37th PGA Awards?this page
- Will Black Mirror win Best Producer of a TV Limited or Anthology Series at the 37th PGA Awards?No won
- Will Black Rabbit win Best Producer of a TV Limited or Anthology Series at the 37th PGA Awards?No won
- Will Dying for Sex win Best Producer of a TV Limited or Anthology Series at the 37th PGA Awards?No won
- Will The Beast in Me win Best Producer of a TV Limited or Anthology Series at the 37th PGA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.