Chess · resolved market
Will ohnePixel win the PogChamps chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb7e9a49e9c8adc6e13066e5b854de1c214e79890e81fb812a503c4ecded026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 71c | 1,445$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 29c | 647$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 29c | 625$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 29c | 620$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 71c | 447$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 67c | 417.07$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 33c | 307.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 43c | 281.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a4…0c00backed No | 66c | 220.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 66c | 173.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 34c | 143.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 54c | 90.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…ba4dbacked Yes | 33c | 67.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d7…c72abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 48.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…1256backed Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Yes | 32c | 40.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Yes | 44c | 33.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…3f05backed No | 50c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417c…c0cbbacked Yes | 50c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…01c8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ohnePixel win the PogChamps chess tournament?this page
- Will Agent00 win the PogChamps chess tournament?No won
- Will ExtraEmily win the PogChamps chess tournament?No won
- Will Joe Bartolozzi win the PogChamps chess tournament?No won
- Will Jynxzi win the PogChamps chess tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.