UFC · resolved market
Will Arman Tsarukyan win against Shara Magomedov?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03f4906967841ed7b43118042d02825812a752c1ca53e6d2d0dc7cb27f611ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Yes | 5c | 33,764$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.73 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…0f18backed Yes | 64c | 1,324$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +713.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 37c | 1,260$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 36c | 1,245$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…98b1backed No | 22c | 461.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 361.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 14c | 355.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.38 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…85cfbacked No | 16c | 306.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 294.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.34 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde34…ff56backed Yes | 80c | 251.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…498dbacked Yes | 30c | 205.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6a…4949backed Yes | 80c | 172.1$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 8c | 168.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 15c | 163.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed No | 14c | 144.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +628.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…7972backed Yes | 71c | 140.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…b395backed Yes | 70c | 103.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…0126backed Yes | 79c | 102.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 14c | 79.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 10cpaid | +1,604.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac5e…87d1backed No | 36c | 68.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +306.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7c…4d13backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…ae9ebacked Yes | 70c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b14…5d9cbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd5…fc44backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Yes | 55c | 58.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 72c | 53.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…f0b0backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…1141backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a8…4bf7backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…2324backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…e47cbacked Yes | 63c | 18.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arman Tsarukyan win against Shara Magomedov?this page
- Will Shara Magomedov win against Arman Tsarukyan?No won
- Will the match end in a draw or not be completed?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.