UFC · resolved market
Will the match end in a draw or not be completed?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45edf5d5071dfe8b9d9406634ae0de64da1a3a7a268964f28af2248a58f45ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e1c…5ee1backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…897cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,333$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +573.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,842$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.88 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…af7abacked Yes | 6c | 1,588$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,504.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…0f18backed Yes | 2c | 1,521$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +713.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc86…7b08backed Yes | 5c | 1,060$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +495%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 6c | 931.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +641.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 2c | 660.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 10cpaid | +1,604.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 3c | 583.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +1,746.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Yes | 31c | 522.29$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aea…badebacked Yes | 7c | 467.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.88 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…bea7backed Yes | 11c | 443.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.35 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…378cbacked Yes | 25c | 432.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…27adbacked Yes | 5c | 408.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,829.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…c849backed Yes | 26c | 387.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed Yes | 3c | 349.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e45…b092backed Yes | 5c | 320$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…db70backed Yes | 26c | 311.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…ad5ebacked Yes | 36c | 276.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed Yes | 6c | 275.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +299.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cde…a242backed Yes | 20c | 247.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 6c | 182.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…2c0ebacked Yes | 31c | 150.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…40c5backed Yes | 19c | 67.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 51.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ad…272abacked Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match end in a draw or not be completed?this page
- Will Arman Tsarukyan win against Shara Magomedov?No won
- Will Shara Magomedov win against Arman Tsarukyan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.