AI · resolved market
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe723ac8ed07d6a56ceb221133c723f4129847f8ddcd6b500bc601d81dc4cc1cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 3c | 1,293$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…96d1backed Yes | 7c | 936.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…691fbacked No | 18c | 629$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…1021backed Yes | 78c | 444.52$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…0f35backed No | 22c | 444.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 22c | 373.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.87 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 27c | 275$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…c5d2backed No | 24c | 263.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…9e62backed Yes | 76c | 263.93$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 190.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 14c | 116.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 114.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…30f8backed Yes | 44c | 110.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…f3d0backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 34c | 88.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 17c | 74.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…61fbbacked Yes | 60c | 49.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 34.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…49e1backed No | 29c | 34.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…da80backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd4…0568backed Yes | 45c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.