AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62dcc512b7c808ee8be0bf22d8158c76768f2728aaf4bc0995ef004dd2b5a835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,603$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.22 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 46c | 6,903$3,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 24c | 2,832$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.75 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 41c | 788.05$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.64 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 640.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…8cc1backed No | 48c | 456.66$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…abafbacked No | 6c | 420.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 47c | 390.38$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 367.59$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.26 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 309.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 60c | 270.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 267.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.01 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed No | 62c | 220.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…ed5abacked Yes | 43c | 207.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…730cbacked Yes | 33c | 157.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 43c | 155.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 66c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…d237backed Yes | 67c | 148.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…fb35backed Yes | 45c | 72.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 24c | 71.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 57c | 64.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…6255backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 53c | 42.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x138f…6b9ebacked Yes | 50c | 39.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbb…42f2backed Yes | 57c | 38.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…e224backed No | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 50c | 35.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 34.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…7359backed Yes | 66c | 25.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…c1a1backed Yes | 43c | 25.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked Yes | 75c | 24.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 53c | 20.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…9523backed No | 67c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?this page
- Will 7-Eleven: Rewards & Shopping be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?No won
- Will MONOPOLY GO!Chat be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?Yes won
- Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.