World Politics · resolved market
Will Baluta flip Ciucu for Bucharest Mayor by Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x938da5dced53e573f50ebc4a442e2540efad219a612d47511502f6e6d47a9740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 14c | 27,690$3,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,994.91 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked No | 1c | 17,559$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed No | 1c | 15,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed No | 12c | 15,000$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 4c | 11,794$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.73 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 15c | 11,080$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 9,420$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd666…d9d6backed No | 1c | 7,139$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…b2e5backed No | 13c | 4,647$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked No | 2c | 3,421$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…9532backed No | 1c | 3,122$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a42abacked No | 15c | 2,580$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 5c | 2,261$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked No | 1c | 2,207$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 11c | 2,169$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.97 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked No | 3c | 2,024$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed No | 11c | 2,000$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4be…f010backed No | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…576fbacked No | 1c | 1,934$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…21d7backed No | 1c | 1,862$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 14c | 1,500$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed No | 3c | 1,290$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 1c | 1,224$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed No | 5c | 999.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…b428backed No | 5c | 970$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed No | 54c | 821.78$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.34 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 5c | 730.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…c108backed No | 16c | 723.44$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 2c | 720$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 5c | 576.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed No | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 16c | 422.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.09 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 31c | 335.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 48c | 329.65$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed No | 6c | 316.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 52c | 297.78$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…8f8abacked No | 7c | 286.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 269.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 9c | 253$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 18c | 223.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 57c | 177.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 23c | 169.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…5242backed No | 11c | 164.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…89febacked No | 26c | 146.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 28c | 144.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 142$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…e644backed No | 16c | 139.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked No | 19c | 130.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…a011backed No | 23c | 117.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2701…6d65backed No | 25c | 116.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 69c | 99.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 94.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…64d1backed No | 24c | 78.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked No | 27c | 70.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 18c | 66.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed No | 76c | 65.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c49…7af9backed No | 23c | 63.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1059…d4b3backed No | 48c | 62.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…c307backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…d677backed Yes | 21c | 49.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afd…fee1backed No | 69c | 45.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…2f53backed Yes | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…321abacked No | 31c | 42.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…45ddbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 35c | 29.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…e045backed Yes | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…03f0backed Yes | 67c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…5b27backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…fd21backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.