Movies · resolved market
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d133da4c0c95cef63d19e8d5bef0ed0cf2616f81bfc843fecfd8469fe54be49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88a6…cf2fbacked Yes | 5c | 19,296$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed Yes | 1c | 18,718$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 1c | 10,052$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 0c | 7,284$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,113$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b136backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…a7fabacked Yes | 2c | 5,384$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,551$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…a964backed Yes | 3c | 2,536$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b62bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,997$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,876$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,739$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 3c | 1,455$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 7c | 1,236$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 6c | 1,197$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…8986backed Yes | 3c | 964.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 12c | 865.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 5c | 774.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…3642backed Yes | 16c | 771$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…0294backed Yes | 14c | 738.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1251…41c0backed Yes | 18c | 552.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…46c1backed Yes | 18c | 545$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 10c | 542$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…b7e0backed Yes | 16c | 499.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 408$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 334.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 9c | 284.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…8e36backed Yes | 18c | 279.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 11c | 223.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…acaebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…ec82backed Yes | 10c | 200.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fb…9e78backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…105dbacked Yes | 25c | 44.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m?this page
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $117-128m?No won
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $128-139m?No won
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m?Yes won
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.