Movies · resolved market
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821dec2b1e1e7c1d5b420efa23df215a704b7b2fec6d9524f310607b781be375
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 30c | 22,507$6,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,694.28 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Yes | 15c | 12,832$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 5,179$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,998$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.25 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 5c | 4,702$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.74 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…abbabacked Yes | 7c | 4,350$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.66 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 11c | 4,305$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.92 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…9133backed Yes | 9c | 3,743$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 65c | 3,162$2,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 12c | 2,417$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,251$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,795$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 20c | 1,676$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 20c | 1,567$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,550$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,452$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 76c | 1,430$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.79 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,413$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 2c | 1,296$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 5c | 1,286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,206$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.95 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 61c | 957.17$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…b4dbbacked Yes | 4c | 905.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 11c | 856.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…0952backed Yes | 2c | 828.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 19c | 814.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…ade8backed Yes | 3c | 812.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 4c | 788.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d0…146abacked Yes | 4c | 760.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 14c | 754.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…9646backed Yes | 6c | 744.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 35c | 741.5$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.61 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 10c | 698.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…e502backed Yes | 11c | 653.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…22ffbacked Yes | 3c | 628$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…3e65backed Yes | 6c | 604.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 5c | 556.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 61c | 501$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 3c | 457.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 7c | 455.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 17c | 433.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…f330backed Yes | 4c | 416.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 7c | 412.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 401.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…24e3backed Yes | 4c | 347.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 67c | 337.28$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349c…7413backed Yes | 5c | 314.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…fa1dbacked Yes | 9c | 291.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ccdabacked Yes | 9c | 234.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 52c | 187.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf25e…5462backed Yes | 7c | 187.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…8a6abacked Yes | 7c | 167.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 15c | 145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 41c | 120.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes | 16c | 111.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…85f0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Yes | 36c | 36.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m?this page
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $117-128m?No won
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $128-139m?No won
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m?Yes won
- Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.