Ukraine · resolved market
Another NATO article 4 by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759147eaf04fc72f0c0c163114f607b403e9b15922d97d0fd076b43539a28caf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 78c | 4,428$3,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.01 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 1,298$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.65 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 1,046$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.26 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 74c | 982.96$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 949.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 15c | 892.49$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 18c | 817.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 814.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 686.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d7…b8e7backed Yes | 35c | 429.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 16c | 309.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 290.65$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 225$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 45cpaid | +98%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 191.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6865…9e80backed No | 79c | 158.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 8c | 156.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…82ebbacked Yes | 23c | 156.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 27c | 123.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…8564backed Yes | 17c | 113.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…e5f0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…9ad1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 79c | 88.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…ced9backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…4853backed Yes | 28c | 76.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…800dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…8fb2backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 72c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.