Middle East · resolved market
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a7d5775faf559d39c1be265d64e860220e9010810a53b08ff5d61c7c057a34b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65fb…92cabacked Yes | 1c | 32,218$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…7532backed Yes | 8c | 11,819$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 10c | 5,895$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 5c | 5,440$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.37 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 7c | 4,217$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.97 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 2,837$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,833$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…e8bdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,769$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,454$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 2,090$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes | 5c | 2,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 6c | 2,040$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…9122backed Yes | 7c | 1,337$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 6c | 1,237$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 1,125$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 1,068$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 6c | 920.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 3c | 900$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…51b8backed Yes | 9c | 836.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…d0abbacked Yes | 4c | 814.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 6c | 808.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 696.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 675.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 639.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 635.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…a0e4backed Yes | 10c | 617.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 8c | 601.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 8c | 600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…fe65backed Yes | 9c | 569.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…82e0backed Yes | 4c | 455.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 4c | 451.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 8c | 344.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 7c | 336.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…6115backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…eadbbacked Yes | 3c | 325.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +121%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 3c | 310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 7c | 289.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 6c | 263.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…69e9backed Yes | 10c | 203$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…5a32backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 6c | 198.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 178.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 178$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.