Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50b893b16556d0e79def2d1a500af6da9e8d22431f98c8c91e689ff4d9644fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 10c | 28,401$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,561.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 37c | 7,082$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,428.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 1,298$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.19 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 3c | 1,221$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 836.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 24c | 831.24$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 7c | 767.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 5c | 755.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…3a02backed Yes | 14c | 721.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +621.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 31c | 600$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 11c | 454.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +450.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffdc…b530backed Yes | 19c | 418.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +232.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 11c | 277.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c0…62f1backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +340.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…3d9cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 166$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…2fe7backed Yes | 12c | 144.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +412.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 118$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.