Ukraine · resolved market
More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161bbe2322936b50c0cef5b79403785dc9f6a6ad387fb7fa3eb0bcb7ef21c259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 2c | 4,332$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 1,248$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 10c | 1,241$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 16c | 908.84$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 14c | 712.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 604.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 13c | 539.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 12c | 484.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 440.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 13c | 394.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 77c | 388.39$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 308.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 10c | 297.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 5c | 276.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 11c | 221.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…d485backed Yes | 23c | 217.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 31c | 186.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…b804backed Yes | 30c | 178.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 163.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…4ee2backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 10c | 131.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 126.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 9c | 114.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 22c | 95.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…b966backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…8218backed Yes | 16c | 70.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed Yes | 26c | 52.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 23c | 50.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d82cbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x230e…865cbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.