AI · resolved market
Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf54b422eb429bd843aae39f441cf2dd554fd9eae1c7013551985ac00b2f1c256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 28c | 1,075$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 516.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…712abacked No | 68c | 514.64$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…3983backed Yes | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 18c | 493.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd144…4159backed Yes | 39c | 477.85$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…862fbacked Yes | 17c | 441.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 67c | 439.79$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 432.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c8…3fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 425.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 14c | 416.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 73c | 406.46$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 65c | 393.07$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 57c | 311.27$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…5aafbacked No | 73c | 273.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked Yes | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 20c | 232.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 218.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 13c | 213.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 199.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 57c | 195.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…0652backed Yes | 17c | 148.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…898abacked No | 77c | 148.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 11c | 147.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 30c | 139.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked Yes | 24c | 132.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…dad0backed Yes | 14c | 122.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…0822backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 115.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 107.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…cc89backed Yes | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 96.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Yes | 24c | 94.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…f2cdbacked Yes | 18c | 86.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 31c | 49.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf935…abc2backed Yes | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…1080backed Yes | 43c | 46.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…fba0backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 31c | 43.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 54c | 42.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc992…7994backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 38c | 26.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec0…40dabacked No | 61c | 25.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf093…2609backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 68c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.