Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79a9a94ab155352c8cc0be81e48fd77a54ef8f5b6f32fbb4626b2b7ba91b0469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 44c | 4,253$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.94 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 49c | 1,647$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.21 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 38c | 1,387$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.7 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…ef27backed Up | 57c | 1,362$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked Up | 55c | 455$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 66c | 414.45$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Down | 53c | 358.49$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 40c | 285.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 55c | 271.21$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed Up | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 42c | 247.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 47c | 243.06$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 50c | 202$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…6669backed Up | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc961…db04backed Up | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 49c | 164.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…16b2backed Down | 54c | 141.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…0ecebacked Up | 45c | 110.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844f…e2edbacked Down | 55c | 81.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed Up | 47c | 74.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Down | 21c | 66.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…6da5backed Up | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Down | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked Up | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Up | 62c | 48.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Down | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed Up | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1f…a246backed Up | 58c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Up | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.