UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5bdea2284620be4e4b4ad1d1476c47a66c43f3e5f0208fd9adacf125fcb9130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Over | 54c | 540.22$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 51c | 489.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…189bbacked Over | 50c | 412.88$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…b808backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 53c | 220.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…6e4cbacked Over | 49c | 209.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 52c | 197.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Under | 53c | 194.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 48c | 185.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 47c | 183.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Under | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 101.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 53c | 95.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 48c | 86.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 52c | 83.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 49c | 79.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 52c | 62.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 58.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…2c93backed Over | 53c | 47.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…613bbacked Over | 53c | 36.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…a02bbacked Under | 50c | 33.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae7…2b6fbacked Over | 52c | 30.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 26.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…cd0abacked Over | 49c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 51c | 21.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Carlos Ulberg won
- Will Carlos Ulberg win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.