UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6c3cbcf292792f2dce14ba2bf38f622793cbf9c5eb3f8bc58d95baf03a694d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 24c | 3,153$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.48 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 77c | 2,819$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.85 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 77c | 2,602$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.89 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed No | 76c | 2,415$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.35 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 22c | 1,229$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.96 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…c08cbacked No | 76c | 1,095$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 23c | 790.63$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked No | 79c | 626.14$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 20c | 605.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 480.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…e7cabacked No | 75c | 470.04$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.14 | 110 | 78.2%86 W · 24 L | +15.6wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…5058backed No | 77c | 433.04$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 27c | 359.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes | 23c | 354.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…9bd9backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…5a89backed No | 78c | 299.44$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7e…366ebacked No | 79c | 290.33$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Yes | 23c | 286.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…6878backed No | 78c | 255.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 21c | 254.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed No | 76c | 221.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 26c | 220.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…0d59backed Yes | 25c | 210.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 24c | 198.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8a…2ad7backed Yes | 25c | 184.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed No | 76c | 182.61$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked No | 78c | 172.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 20c | 162.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 22c | 157.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…1fdabacked Yes | 24c | 151.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Yes | 24c | 137.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed No | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 74c | 124.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked Yes | 18c | 121.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 112.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 27c | 100.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6099…1914backed Yes | 27c | 99.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…471fbacked Yes | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 24c | 97.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 93.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a8…0ee3backed Yes | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…cf9fbacked Yes | 27c | 71.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Yes | 25c | 69.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 23c | 68.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…dd7abacked No | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…5067backed No | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…f7d7backed No | 72c | 55.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…e2a6backed No | 79c | 52.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…5af8backed No | 77c | 51.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 75c | 50.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes | 22c | 47.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…1dbabacked No | 76c | 44.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 79c | 36.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…9f41backed No | 76c | 34.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…8a75backed No | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…8e42backed No | 79c | 29.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 73c | 28.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…a14bbacked No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…9b6ebacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd693…339dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…2b7fbacked No | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 80c | 23.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…d740backed No | 76c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked No | 79c | 21.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…2918backed No | 76c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062f…c0bebacked No | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723b…b452backed No | 78c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…d745backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Carlos Ulberg won
- Will Carlos Ulberg win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.