TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x723b…b452

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Champions League, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$30.59
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Cory Sandhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Robert Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Joaquin Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.13
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)backed King Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Waldo Cortes-Acosta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Jared Gordon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.8
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Jack Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Beneil Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Brando Pericic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$66.79
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tai Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Youssef Zalal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.76
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$2.96
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Azamat Murzakanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.84
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Dominick Reyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+77.2%+$75.18
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Aaron Pico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.42
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Kelvin Gastelum · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.49
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Joe Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$45.91
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Movsar Evloev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$24.86
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Michael Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$104.42
All 24 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1090%9 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick62cpaid+47.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$11.59
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$45.68
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$43.75
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.99
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$57.43
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$45.55
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$10.35
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+81.3%+$47.45
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$49.91
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$63.75
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$67.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$19.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.