Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11f986d9b53dea469e52c18b7adcb03f68241672724c8c732baa8a15c416b801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2305…04f2backed Yes | 1c | 6,704$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 74c | 6,455$4,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.78 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 28c | 5,275$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.18 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 1c | 4,764$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 74c | 4,263$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 33c | 4,025$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.77 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 3,939$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.72 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,938$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 2c | 3,180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 41c | 3,031$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.81 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,813$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.65 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 1c | 2,054$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…200fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,975$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…d717backed Yes | 12c | 1,799$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 18c | 1,625$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…b901backed No | 49c | 1,625$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 36c | 1,149$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.76 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…df23backed Yes | 38c | 1,100$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 8c | 1,095$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,047$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.48 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Yes | 27c | 900$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe774…6457backed Yes | 5c | 895.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed No | 46c | 859.17$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.24 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 47c | 643.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.48 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…335ebacked Yes | 62c | 595.44$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x945b…8ca4backed No | 63c | 381.47$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 67c | 308$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…6ca1backed No | 72c | 277.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…23f3backed Yes | 46c | 252.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…d244backed No | 62c | 209.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…7aa0backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed No | 51c | 199.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…4ccbbacked No | 65c | 185.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…8167backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94f…ae8dbacked Yes | 40c | 157.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed No | 76c | 155.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…f384backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a254backed Yes | 24c | 112.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 52c | 105.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ba…9f0ebacked Yes | 11c | 103.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb462…fc89backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…de7abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…03a3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…561dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…5944backed Yes | 48c | 90.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…5a5ebacked Yes | 44c | 63.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc095…c1c5backed No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…2f84backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…3339backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…b8bfbacked Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe874…52a4backed Yes | 28c | 36.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…600cbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed No | 58c | 34.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…da04backed No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 43c | 27.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…64babacked No | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 65c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…ccd4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…f1b3backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492b…103fbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 75c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 July 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.