Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87ce569b59cb944493af5ddd228f12ddaf02c489a24261c4a4ce588f1ad5b168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 8c | 11,159$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.95 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed Yes | 0c | 7,028$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 10c | 7,000$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed Yes | 7c | 5,400$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +474.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…18e5backed Yes | 6c | 5,099$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.87 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,026$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,559$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.43 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,376$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.61 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,389$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 2,389$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 12c | 2,123$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.47 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…c69ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 11c | 1,744$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d034backed Yes | 43c | 1,487$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 67c | 899.3$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.11 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…dc47backed Yes | 37c | 640.74$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 10c | 544.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…e6f6backed Yes | 24c | 430$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…6ca1backed No | 80c | 402.44$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…f922backed Yes | 10c | 316.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa603…1103backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 10c | 198.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 6c | 170.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…23f3backed Yes | 12c | 153.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 8c | 127.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 10c | 120.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df8…8e9dbacked Yes | 9c | 116.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Yes | 19c | 116.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…ff1abacked Yes | 10c | 109$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…d68ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…3296backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…4a1dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…49ebbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…3dc1backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…2712backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e3…6162backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0d…bc8dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…561dbacked Yes | 38c | 97.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 61c | 44.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…f384backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 51c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x492b…103fbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 July 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.