Earnings · resolved market
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47380287d3a4337ac7c6104284c17f3edaed87d5f8a3dbbe2eb4c12e055eb644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked No | 9c | 4,037$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…42ccbacked No | 1c | 1,909$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 18c | 1,513$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…1a3bbacked No | 10c | 1,354$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 10c | 1,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 987.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 7c | 949.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…d361backed No | 4c | 538$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 8c | 399.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 9c | 387.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 308.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 9c | 292.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked No | 16c | 249.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 9c | 239.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 19c | 168.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 162.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…a8ddbacked Yes | 80c | 138.75$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked No | 23c | 108.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 73c | 48.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b3…4798backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.