TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,865 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes59c2,498$1,480 inLost-$1,4808737.9%33 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes11c1,830$204 inLost-$203.9410235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No26c1,824$474 inWon+$1,349.6614835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes9c1,348$116 inLost-$115.568342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes12c734.52$88 inLost-$88.4822927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes8c656.96$50 inLost-$49.711338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce7…6b90backed Yes16c619.19$100 inLost-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+255.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes13c422.65$56 inLost-$55.746926.1%18 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes9c321.23$29 inLost-$28.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c3c…4169backed Yes16c251.75$40 inLost-$39.63540%14 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes13c251$33 inLost-$33.141741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc640…1fa9backed Yes18c230.48$41 inLost-$40.6550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x722c…09ebbacked Yes18c217.65$39 inLost-$38.784924.5%12 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+134.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No78c200$157 inWon+$43.21656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes12c134.7$16 inLost-$15.7912835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes15c133.24$20 inLost-$19.729335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes13c109.99$14 inLost-$14.415046%23 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost-$14.13151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost-$13.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes14c99.99$14 inLost-$1419939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes12c88.15$10 inLost-$10.426544.6%29 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes12c87.95$11 inLost-$10.858923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No78c64.1$50 inWon+$14.14358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.