Music · resolved market
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8c7630461c8c7157dd66bf93d6702d93caa4a5bbfcad5e155d294cc8077af9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 18c | 3,448$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.07 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…8e96backed Yes | 15c | 2,888$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +498.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 14c | 1,255$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.97 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Yes | 3c | 841.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.38 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 67c | 834.28$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 3c | 824.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 37c | 658.75$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 8c | 600.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.09 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 8c | 550$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 504.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.96 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 10c | 480.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.16 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 74c | 471.81$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.7 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 10c | 465.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.76 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.28 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…fc31backed Yes | 68c | 370.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 12c | 313.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…3d71backed Yes | 7c | 310$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.28 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +345.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Yes | 11c | 299.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…0cdebacked Yes | 8c | 288.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 9c | 263.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.84 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…6bbebacked Yes | 16c | 263.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +185.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 247.68$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…94d3backed Yes | 22c | 233.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +675.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…1538backed Yes | 10c | 201.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 13c | 168.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00fc…d4a6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…e8a4backed Yes | 15c | 106.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +871.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Yes | 10c | 104.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…1f70backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…58d1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 44c | 97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 83.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 81.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…232fbacked Yes | 68c | 73.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 47c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Albania win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Armenia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Azerbaijan win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Cyprus win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Czechia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Denmark win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Latvia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Luxembourg win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Malta win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Norway win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Romania win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Switzerland win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.