TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Romania win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,213
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,213 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes39c2,958$1,160 inLost-$1,1608737.9%33 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No42c1,635$687 inWon+$948.5214835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Yes11c1,111$122 inLost-$122.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-76%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f09…fc31backed Yes8c1,096$92 inLost-$921266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes9c780.28$72 inLost-$72.398342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes9c687.67$62 inLost-$61.5210235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes15c648$98 inLost-$97.919335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8e…36d9backed Yes9c609.32$54 inLost-$53.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa440…a487backed Yes15c450$68 inLost-$67.53935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+72%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes9c408.75$35 inLost-$35.286926.1%18 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x186c…11cebacked Yes10c400$39 inLost-$39.081931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Yes15c291.6$44 inLost-$44.064835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes10c267.34$26 inLost-$25.931520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes7c249.72$17 inLost-$16.833528.6%10 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffc6…411fbacked Yes15c206.67$30 inLost-$303145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb424…3b71backed Yes16c200$31 inLost-$31.114318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes12c197.28$24 inLost-$24.158923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a48…497ebacked Yes7c149.99$10 inLost-$10.21735.3%6 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+136.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3019…3a90backed Yes16c124.73$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x247f…38debacked Yes14c110.83$15 inLost-$15475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+85.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3780…6429backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10.03128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-66.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00fc…d4a6backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+151.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes18c75.18$13 inLost-$13.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c84…8eb1backed Yes60c23.33$14 inLost-$14650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.